Brexit Debacle Continues to Develop – What are the Odds Now?

brexit jigsaw

The whirlwind of disaster surrounding the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union continues to spiral out of control on a daily basis, with political in-fighting, treachery, threats and confusion filling the daily news.

There is only a meagre 15 weeks left until the all-powerful Article 50 withdrawal agreement is scheduled to come into effect and yet Prime Minister Theresa May is still struggling to get MP’s to agree to her Brexit deal.

To add fuel to the fire, this coming Thursday is the date the UK Parliament goes on Christmas leave, severely reducing the time left to sort the mess out. Brexit supporters are hoping to push through a vote on May’s deal before then but it’s not looking likely.

Over this past weekend, 60 percent of bets were placed on a second EU referendum happening. However, despite the public support, odds of a second vote are actually decreasing. This is most likely due to high ranking MP’s publically scoffing at the idea. SkyBet, Betfair and Ladbrokes are now offering only 5/4 odds on a second vote, down from a slightly higher than 50 percent chance last week.

Should Theresa May be ousted as PM following an inability to secure a deal, Boris Johnson currently holds highest odds on becoming the next Conservative leader with a 4/1 chance from Skybet, William Hill and Betfair.

Sajid Javid comes in a very close second with 5/1 odds from Bet Victor and BoyleSports.

Odds on Brexit not happening for another three years have also reduced, indicating growing acceptance from the general public that withdrawal on the March 2019 date will go ahead. Two weeks ago when the European Court of Justice ruled that Article 50 could be repealed, odds on Brexit not happening until 2021 increased. Now, however, it seems increasingly likely that it will happen in 2019, with William Hill and Paddy Power giving it 1/3 odds.

A delay until 2021, by comparison, now only has 12/1 odds from bet365, William Hill and BoyleSports.

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